[Sobeyet]

Deceax, on 22 July 2011 - 11:56 AM, said:

Would it be conceivable that maybe the abyssal maw or whatever is the last real raiding tier and deathwing ends up being released as a Halion type raid where he is the only one you have to face?

More likely the other way around, they generally like to make a big deal out of prominent lore characters.

The slate is from 4/2/10. That's before Ruby Sanctum even came out, I doubt Blizz expected to release Firelands on 6/28/11 last April. There's going to be some massive QQ if they cut out a whole tier (ZOMG U GIF ME 4 TEARS LAST TIME, Y ONLY 3 NAO) so the better business move is to push the expansion back. Most people don't like to release games right before/during the summer anyway, down months for gaming in general.

Not sure what the big deal is anyway, you're going to buy it (Diablo, Starcraft, WoW expansions) whenever it comes out, and you won't even remember the release date 6 months after the fact. I could give 2 shits about when something happens, just make it good.

[Wrathblood]

Well, Azshara and the Old Gods are pretty prominent themselves (which entire zone does Deathwing have named after him?), and BC was released in Feb, I think, so they don't HAVE all be pre-Christmas releases, though that would be the smart way to do it. I mean, I assume BC was intended to be a Nov/Dec launch, but things got fouled up and the held it up until it was ready. Which is a good rep to have in the computer game world as long as you back it up, which Blizzard typically does.

[Sobeyet]

Wrathblood, on 22 July 2011 - 12:22 PM, said:

Well, Azshara and the Old Gods are pretty prominent themselves (which entire zone does Deathwing have named after him?), and BC was released in Feb, I think, so they don't HAVE all be pre-Christmas releases, though that would be the smart way to do it. I mean, I assume BC was intended to be a Nov/Dec launch, but things got fouled up and the held it up until it was ready. Which is a good rep to have in the computer game world as long as you back it up, which Blizzard typically does.

Was talking more about the CoT raid, that wouldn't be a bad digestif to cap off the expansion. Blizz said they're planning for 4 tiers, I'm sticking to that until they tell me otherwise.

[Sobeyet]

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 02:48 PM, said:

To lie is to state something with disregard to the truth with the intention that people will accept the statement as truth. A prediction or forecast is a statement about the way things/something will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge.

When you make a prediction, you don't really know what's going to happen. If you knew what was going to happen, you'd just be stating facts.

If you make a prediction and you're wrong, you're not lying. You're just an idiot.

Kbore, on 09 June 2011 - 05:48 PM, said:

It will probably be another year before we get a release date.

If you make a prediction that disregards facts or overstates the statistical probability of an event happening, you're lying.

Kbore, on 16 July 2011 - 12:31 PM, said:

And wrath nailed it on a Dec 31 release date. [He actually said early December.]

I've worked in Economics / Financial Services about 8 years and any prediction worth it's salt is a two-faced lie designed to make it seem like you know what the hell you're talking about.

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 02:48 PM, said:

When they give a quarterly prediction they always put it on the tail end of the quarter, hence Dec. 31.

Then your previous statement is useless, because quarters span a 3-month gap. With that logic it could be coming out October 1st (or whatever dates they use for quarters).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And the chart Decaux linked is most likely what they based that prediction on. Past trends and company history.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conjecture. IGN does not have factual knowledge of Blizzard's internal release date. You do not have factual knowledge of what IGN is basing their "prediction" on. So now you're guessing at what other people are guessing at.

[Wrathblood]

Sobie does that with everything. He's just looking for sparring partners.

[Sobeyet]

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 03:47 PM, said:

Rr.--> Here's your logic in an example. Weather man, predicts it was gonna rain from there radar and sat. data in your area. But then a north west wind came in and blew the front somewhere else thus making it not rain in the place they told you and everyone it was going to rain. Making them a lier and idiot by that logic wouldn't it?

If you define lying as "not telling the truth" and idiot as "being wrong," then yes. You don't necessarily have to define it that way, but it's really just a matter of semantics. I personally draw the distinction at how the person chooses to represent himself. If you think / give off the vibe that you know what you're talking about, you damn well better (or be excellent at faking it, I can appreciate mad swag in a different way). Meteorologists have a built-in reputation for being inaccurate, I try to give people the benefit of the doubt until they prove me wrong.

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 03:47 PM, said:

Re.-->that was just my speaking my mind from how companies always wait till the last minute to say anything unless there confident developers. I gave examples in some of my other post about that. Im confused on what your trying to say about my comment. That I'm lying?

Was directed at your "nailed it on a Dec 31 release date" comment - that's not what Wrath actually said, but it fit in with your narrative so you went with it. And then when the narrative changed with the quarters, you superimposed it on your previous argument when it didn't really fit.

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 03:47 PM, said:

Re.-->So yes it technically could come out in October but did they state or I say that? I thought I was guessing along with the rest of you guys.

Who do you mean by they, Blizzard? IGN? Your original statement was "On the IGN websites a release date for Diablo 3 has been announced. And wrath nailed it on a Dec 31 release date. ( due to testing might get pushed )" so I'm assuming you mean IGN.

Think of it this way, if "they always put it on the tail end of the quarter" is true, then impose it on the previous statement: "On the IGN websites a release date for Diablo 3 has been announced. And wrath nailed it on an October 1st - Dec 31 release date." Does that sound like what you were trying to say?

FYI, the game page for IGN makes no mention of a release date for Diablo III: http://pc.ign.com/ob...714/714955.html All I see is "Release Date: TBA 2011"

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 03:47 PM, said:

Re.--> isn't predicting just another word for guessing. Isn't that what I've been doing this whole time along with IGN and others " guessing " at a release date? I'm not LIEING about it or trying to deceive anyone in believing I know the answer am I? Sometimes I think you take my word far too seriously when this is an open discussion about a games release date.

See above. I don't think I'm unreasonable for reading " a release date for Diablo 3 has been announced" as you accepting it as fact. That's been the whole crux of the argument really, Len's general point was "Trust Blizzard, other places pull dates out of their ass" and you disagreed. I'm never one to turn down a logic fight. But hey, if you think I'm just being a dick I can lay off. I will still call you out if I think you're being biased with apps though, this thread is just me bored on a Friday afternoon while it's 104 degrees outside.

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 03:47 PM, said:

I'd like to think my comments had some merit but clearly you feel the need to take my comments and pick em apart.

Your comments as far as opinions go have merit, sure. But if you frame your opinions as statements of fact, that's when it starts to fall apart. I don't think I'm the only person that noticed:

Serror, on 11 June 2011 - 06:22 PM, said:

Kbore, on 09 June 2011 - 05:48 PM, said:

I blame Activision the fine owner of blizzard and its tactics of distribution and spacing out sale between there products. Long story shot, It will probably be another year before we get a release date. Not in till the decline of sales in WoW and SC2, nothing major will motivate them to push for a release unless the money starts to run out.

[Citation Needed]

I've stated previously that I think the whole guessing thing is stupid. If you want to have as much info as possible on a release date without actually working for Blizzard, all you need is http://investor.acti...com/results.cfm


You can look at the quarterly report the parent company gave to investors on May 9th, 2011 (hey look, citation to support my claims!).

Diablo III
– Beginning companywide internal testing
– Targeting Q3 launch for external beta testing
– Do not have an official release date or window yet, but driving hard to launch Diablo III this year

Everything else, like Len said, is a lie (aka not corroborated truth). They don't know any more than you or the homeless guy on the street.

[Deceax]

I see sobie's shoulder is getting better. If you can type this much surely you can press a few keys to raid. Or you're just getting really good at typing with one hand.

[Sobeyet]

Deceax, on 22 July 2011 - 05:59 PM, said:

I see sobie's shoulder is getting better. If you can type this much surely you can press a few keys to raid. Or you're just getting really good at typing with one hand.

Check the time stamps, took me over 40 minutes to type that. Methinks I like to argue.

I also tend to edit after posting (like this sentence) to fix grammar, occasionally I add/remove words.

[Deceax]

Quote

Check the time stamps, took me over 40 minutes to type that. Methinks I like to argue.

What? You argue? Never. Btw I predict diablo 3 coming out december 20th. I have my sources.

[Sobeyet]

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 06:06 PM, said:

Look for Diablo 3 on the list, note they put a Dec. 31 date on the listings. It say's release but clearly without evidence when you look into it further. Not accurate so I called it a prediction based most likely on the report you mentioned.

No, you called it an announcement. Then when you got called out for believing in an unverified source (Guillermo Del Toro's Insane is coming out 12/31/13 guys!) you expanded your original definition. "announced" "nailed" "here's the kicker" are not words related to predictions.

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 06:06 PM, said:

2d, http://pc.ign.com/ar.../1148703p1.html shows that in Feb there was no expectations on it being this year but aimed to try. If not a 2 title launch in 2012.
while http://pc.ign.com/ar.../1166962p1.html show they'll most like will try for it. This article I like to point out also follows up on a point I made about the SC2 beta coming out in Feb. And then getting launched in July, so 5 months after public testing. I think I said 4 so I was off, but if its getting public testing in the 3d Q and you add 5 months, that almost puts you in Dec.

Don't see how the first article is relevant to your previous points. If anything it proves how useless speculation is since 5 months ago Blizzard wasn't even sure if they were releasing a game this year.

Regarding the second article, you actually said 7 months - "Blizzard was giving out StarCraft 2 beta keys 7 months before launch. They announced it 3 months into the test period.". You also said "3rd Quarter:July, August, September" so adding 5 months from today would put you around the week of Christmas. However there aren't any public keys as of now. So 3 conclusions: you were wrong with 7 months in your previous post (probable), you are wrong with 5 months now (possible), just because one game released 5 months in between public testing and release doesn't mean another will (ding ding ding!).

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 06:06 PM, said:

I try to base my arguments on fact as much as I can.

So if anyone wanted to notice they could have seen I'm not completely making this shit up I only base it off media released by these game developers. So if it's a lie / prediction or fact it's still just information being passes along from one source to the next.

Yet you can't remember (or are too lazy to bother looking at) things you said yesterday, so how can we view you as a credible source? This is how credibility slowly crumbles (also praising apps that turn out to be clickers who don't even know their own class).

[Kbore]

Regarding the second article, you actually said 7 months - "Blizzard was giving out StarCraft 2 beta keys 7 months before launch

--> I wasn't even done editing my own post were I corrected my own words before you posted this. Seriously go for a walk or something.

as for seeing me as a credible source. I never thought in any way , shape or form that you even gave a shit about me. Nor gave me any evidence to suggest otherwise.

I did learn something today, don't bother speaking your mind in guild forums. Just get nothing but grief and insults.

[Sobeyet]

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 07:50 PM, said:

Regarding the second article, you actually said 7 months - "Blizzard was giving out StarCraft 2 beta keys 7 months before launch

--> I wasn't even done editing my own post were I corrected my own words before you posted this. Seriously go for a walk or something.

It's after sunset and the heat index is 101 degrees. Better than the 115 it was at noon, but I'm pretty sure I'm staying indoors with the A/C blasting tonight. I'll respond to your PM as soon as I finish typing it out, but I'll lay out some context about me (since you know, I can't turn down an opportunity to talk about myself in public).

First of all, whenever I "argue" with people it's rarely driven by anger. I don't care about most things enough to get worked up about it, ennui has its pros and cons. It's a weird dichotomy, I shrug off most things, but once I get going I have this insane attention to detail. I love the mental sparring involved in debate, a shocking number of people can't/won't keep track of the things they say and if you pay attention it's easy to talk circles around them.

You ever have that friend that always tells you the same story because they forgot they already told you? You ask him how things are going, he tells you some story about his cousin getting married. Ask him how things are going two weeks later, he tells you the same thing. Now most people do this to some extent, especially if they talk to a lot of people on a daily basis or are really busy in general. For whatever reason, I don't. If I'm having a conversation with someone in a social setting, shit just sticks to my brain. It's fantastic for networking parties, weddings, etc.; give me an hour and I'll know some obscure facts about everyone in the room. (Though oddly I have to make a concerted effort to remember names, I have a 3-part system for that) For example, I'm looking to move soon and I've probably met about 30 potential roommates this month. If I saw any one of them on the street a month from now I can pick up right where I left off, knowing where they went to school, what they do for a living, how many siblings they have, even what plans they had for the weekend last time we spoke.

It's definitely not something I was born with, but I've made a habit of cultivating it over the years. My overall memory isn't exceptional either, I used to have pretty good short-term memory when I was in school but that was just from repetition and it deteriorates a little every year. I'm not ashamed to say that I use it to my advantage whenever I can. On forums/texting/email it's more of a level playing field - if someone wants to remember exactly what they said, they can always look it up. In face-to-face conversations it's an absolute slaughter. I'm usually taller than the person I'm talking to and I don't shy away from eye contact (lot of people don't have the nerve to do that for whatever reason) so I'm dealing from a position of advantage to start with. The actual language is a bit more subtle (since they won't remember every detail, better to keep it simpler and reinforce with body language, visual cues, etc.) but the effect is just the same.

There's definitely a musk of arrogance in the proceedings, the basic nature of debate is really about imposing your will on the other person. I love being able to walk into a room and just wrest control of the situation, does wonders for my giant ego. But you do have to have an irrational sense of confidence about these things because insecurity equals weakness. Have to channel your inner Alec-Baldwin-in-Glengarry-Glen-Ross. Hopefully after the "competition" is over you have enough self-awareness to reflect back on the mistakes you did make and try to do better next time. But again, there's rarely a sense of disdain for the other person. I actually gave you an out before (see post #26), you didn't take it. If you want to argue, I will go as long as you want and still shake your hand with honesty afterwards, no hard feelings. If you don't want to argue or are going to get upset, just walk away whenever you feel like it.

Kbore, on 22 July 2011 - 07:50 PM, said:

as for seeing me as a credible source. I never thought in any way , shape or form that you even gave a shit about me. Nor gave me any evidence to suggest otherwise.

I did learns something today, don't bother speaking your mind unless in guild forums. Just get nothing but grief and insults.

Going to address something from the PM here since I think it's relevant to everyone. I rarely give unsolicited critiques (@threads) for people that are in guild, especially since I've had a say in who gets to raid or not. Why? Because I don't like doing it. It's a giant pain in the ass, and I don't have some magic power that you don't. There's nothing I can figure out that you can't on your own, so to me it's just someone being too lazy to do their own research. But when asked, I've always done it because if that's what it takes for you to improve, then it's better for the guild as a whole.

ALocklikeluv's critique? He asked me to do it. The warrior thread? Savros asked me. Even my hunter thread got started when Ashley asked me to write how-to guides for classes. The rare exception has been for people that play the same class as I do (since I'm looking over my own numbers anyway, easy enough to use it as a point of comparison). Recruits get grilled because I don't know them. Once they're in, I figure the vetting process was enough and they'll be able to take care of things on their own. Of course I still go over encounter specific details as needed (hey it's good to use X during phase 2, etc.) but I trust every single person I recruited. The 15 people that are on the "raiding roster" thread right now? I've never created an @thread for any of them. So it's not just you.

But if anyone ever wants feedback, I'm always available. I even mentioned this in a post 10 days ago (see there's that annoying memory popping up again).

Sobeyet, on 12 July 2011 - 01:21 PM, said:

As always, if you have something to get off your chest I'll be around. Sometimes it can be easier to talk with someone who's not making the immediate decisions (like some people talking to Wrath when I was RL'ing, that's perfectly fine).

Also, if you're curious about your performance you can always ask me to do a detailed critique. Doesn't really matter if you're playing well, okay, or bad, everyone has things they can work on. I'm not as plugged in to encounter-specific details as I'd usually be, but I should at least be able to point you in the right direction. Won't have any direct bearing on whether you sit or not (no brownie points, just your personal edification), though obviously if you're kicking ass it's harder for Wrath to sit you. Next couple of weeks will be the toughest for me to bang out a 2,000 word review, so might take me longer than usual.

[Wrathblood]

"There's definitely a musk of arrogance in the proceedings, the basic nature of debate is really about imposing your will on the other person. I love being able to walk into a room and just wrest control of the situation, does wonders for my giant ego. But you do have to have an irrational sense of confidence about these things because insecurity equals weakness. Have to channel your inner Alec-Baldwin-in-Glengarry-Glen-Ross. Hopefully after the "competition" is over you have enough self-awareness to reflect back on the mistakes you did make and try to do better next time. But again, there's rarely a sense of disdain for the other person. I actually gave you an out before (see post #26), you didn't take it. If you want to argue, I will go as long as you want and still shake your hand with honesty afterwards, no hard feelings. If you don't want to argue or are going to get upset, just walk away whenever you feel like it."

Huge truth to this. Being arrogant/personally self-confident is more valuable in a debate than being smart. APPEARING to have a strong grasp of the details and concepts is really valuable, because it gives your arguments credibility, making people more likely to believe them. You don't ACTUALLY have to have a strong grasp of the material for this to work, you just have to convince the other person that you do, and then have the will to push through your view of the world.

[Sobeyet]

I just want an excuse to post this:



I always forget how good looking Alec Baldwin was, nowadays the first thing that comes to mind is the fat 30 Rock version.

[Wrathblood]

He may be fat now, but he's still awesome.

[Kbore]

All I know if I'm never putting my 2 cents in these asshole filled " debates" again.

[Sobeyet]

Kbore, on 26 July 2011 - 04:54 PM, said:

All I know if I'm never putting my 2 cents in these asshole filled " debates" again.

[Wrathblood]

http://www.mmo-champion.com/content/

Yikes. Gold farming just got a lot more interesting.